empty
03.08.2020 02:06 AM
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 3. "American circus" in action. Trump is trying to shift the electorate's attention from failed economic indicators.

4-hour timeframe

This image is no longer relevant

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 31.4677

The US currency has fallen into the abyss in recent weeks at the rate of almost free fall. Such strong growth of the euro and the pound against the dollar has not happened for a long time. And given the fact that there has been no optimistic news in the European Union and the UK recently, then, as we have repeatedly said, the reason for the fall of the dollar is only the "4 crises" that are raging now in the United States. We have already written about them many times, as well as about the fact that the upward trend can be interrupted at any time. Last Friday, buyers took the first step towards completing the upward trend. A powerful pullback followed and now it is unknown whether traders will want to start buying euros and selling the dollar again? After all, despite the fact that it is now very difficult to find a sphere of life in America where everything would be in order, the euro currency has already risen quite significantly against the dollar. The American currency cannot fall forever! Therefore, we will not be surprised if the dollar rises this week, even though there are no fundamental reasons for this now.

By and large, the past trading week ended as expected. The most interesting macroeconomic report on Friday was GDP in the Eurozone for the second quarter. It turned out that GDP declined by 12.1% in quarterly terms, which is approximately equal to the forecast of -12%. So we can't even say that the numbers were much worse than traders' expectations. The second most important report of the day – EU inflation for July – was even better than forecasts. Core inflation was 1.2% y/y with a forecast of +0.8%, and overall inflation was + 0.4% y/y with a forecast of +0.2%. Thus, we would even conclude that the euro currency had no fundamental or macroeconomic reasons to fall on this day. However, the euro/dollar pair absolutely needed to adjust. And this correction has been brewing for a long time.

The chief newsmaker of recent months and years, Donald Trump, again came under massive criticism from the media. After it became known that the American economy shrank by 33% in the second quarter, which has never happened in the history of the United States, the American president immediately came under a barrage of criticism. In principle, this is logical when the head of state not only rests on his laurels when everything is good in the country, telling people left and right that it is his merit, but also takes responsibility for what is happening when the country is in crisis. Trump, of course, is unlikely to take responsibility for all the types of crises that now exist in the United States, however, the Americans have put the responsibility for what is happening on Trump and the government as a whole. And this is normal and logical. The government is to lead the country. If the results are bad, then the government needs to change. At least in democratic countries, this is true, and the US proclaims itself a democratic country. Thus, the conclusion is self-evident. Trump needs to go. And a chain of inferences, which now sits in the minds of Americans is as simple as ever: Trump has a fight with China - China "took revenge" on the United States with a "coronavirus" - even if there was no targeted revenge, the US government has "missed" all the preparations for the epidemic and are unable to respond effectively - in Europe, they managed to stop the first "wave" - in the United States, no - the EU GDP (for example) decreased by 12% in the second quarter - in America, by 33% - unemployment in the EU increased just a few percent - in the United States, at 7-8% by conservative estimates - the new "wave" of COVID-2019 may lead to new consequences for the economy, even more finishing it - who is responsible for all this? The answer is obvious.

But even this is not the most interesting thing. The most interesting thing is how Trump is trying to "whitewash" himself, to prove to the American people that he is not to blame for everything that is happening, and most importantly – to be re-elected for a second term. Some respected media outlets with a global reputation have noticed interesting patterns in Trump's behavior. As soon as any significant event happens in the United States that "casts a shadow" on the president, the president himself immediately makes a loud statement to distract the attention of the people from negative news. For example, Trump got in touch with a proposal to postpone the presidential election 19 minutes after the Bureau of Statistical Information published -33% of GDP. Earlier, Trump began to inflate the baseless case of "Obamagate", accusing Joe Biden, Barack Obama and other Democrats of dishonest play in the 2016 election, saying they did not want his victory and put all their forces "sticks in the wheels", despite the fact that no evidence of their words. Then, the number of deaths from the "coronavirus" crossed the 80,000 mark. And even if this is a pure coincidence, and Trump's proposal to postpone the election is serious, it does not add points to the president's karma, because his proposal was immediately criticized by everyone, even Republicans, who said that never before in the history of the United States has a presidential election been postponed. In general, "American circus" continues and it is unclear how it can end.

Thus, at the moment, we would say that the US currency has no prospects. Nevertheless, they are there. First, the technical ones. Almost non-stop growth continued on July 1, that is, exactly a month. During this time, the euro rose by 7 cents. For comparison, for the entire 2019 year, with a favorable fundamental background for the dollar, this currency has grown by 2 cents. Thus, traders can expect 200-300 points of correction. Then, secondly, all the current negative fundamental and macroeconomic background has already been played out. It is clear that the longer the epidemic persists in the US, the longer the mass riots continue, the more Trump will "bury" his chances of reelection thanks to absolutely opaque actions and statements, the more likely it is that the fall of the US currency will continue. However, we still believe that first there should be these very reasons for new sales of the US currency. Thus, as long as the price is above the moving average line, we continue to recommend trading on the trend no matter what. It is recommended to consider seriously selling the pair only after overcoming the moving average. But at the same time, we must understand that a correction of 200-300 points down is now very likely. So we must be ready for this option.

This image is no longer relevant

The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of August 3 is 105 points and is now characterized as "high". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1673 and 1.1883. The upward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator signals the end of the downward correction within the ascending trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1597

S3 – 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a long-awaited round of corrective movement. Thus, at this time, it is recommended to continue to consider the possibility of opening purchases with the goals of 1.1841 and 1.1883, but to do this, you need to wait for the Heiken Ashi indicator to turn upward. It is recommended to open sell orders no earlier than when the pair is fixed below the moving average line with the first target of 1.1597.

Recommended Stories

Đô la Mỹ: Tổng quan tuần

Bối cảnh tin tức kinh tế ở Hoa Kỳ sẽ rất mạnh. Đây là khởi đầu của một tháng mới, vì vậy các báo cáo về hoạt động kinh doanh

Chin Zhao 00:52 2025-06-02 UTC+2

Bảng Anh: Dự báo hàng tuần

Hiện nay đồng bảng Anh đang trải qua một trong những giai đoạn tốt nhất trong 15 năm qua. Tất nhiên, trong khoảng thời gian dài như vậy, cũng

Chin Zhao 00:52 2025-06-02 UTC+2

Euro: Dự Báo Hàng Tuần

Đồng euro vẫn tiếp tục khẳng định vị thế của mình mà không gặp trở ngại gì. Tôi còn có thể nói rằng nó đã không đạt được giai đoạn

Chin Zhao 00:52 2025-06-02 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Phân Tích và Dự Báo

Hôm nay giá vàng giảm xuống dưới mức $3300. Dữ liệu PCE của Mỹ đã đạt kỳ vọng. Sự thay đổi trong dòng chảy thương mại đang giúp đồng

Irina Yanina 17:37 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Lạm phát đang gần như được kiểm soát

Trong khi đồng euro tiếp tục giữ vững vị thế so với đồng đô la, thành viên Hội đồng Điều hành Ngân hàng Trung ương Châu Âu (ECB) Fabio Panetta

Jakub Novak 13:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Phân tích và Dự báo

Cặp USD/CAD đang cố gắng lấy lại đà tăng trưởng tích cực hôm nay, dù các nhà giao dịch vẫn thận trọng trước khi chỉ số Giá chi tiêu tiêu

Irina Yanina 13:22 2025-05-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Phân tích và Dự báo

Cặp tỷ giá EUR/USD tiếp tục gặp khó khăn trong việc phục hồi sau khi bật lên từ mức 1.1200 được ghi nhận trước đó, cho thấy xu hướng tiêu

Irina Yanina 13:19 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Các Tranh Chấp Pháp Lý Giữa Trump Và Các Công Ty Về Thuế Quan Sẽ Ảnh Hưởng Tiêu Cực Đến Thị Trường (Có Khả Năng Giá Bitcoin Và Litecoin Tiếp Tục Sụt Giảm)

Các thị trường toàn cầu bị ảnh hưởng đáng kể bởi các sự kiện diễn ra tại Hoa Kỳ, nơi cả lĩnh vực chính trị và kinh tế tiếp

Pati Gani 11:11 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Cần Thêm Thời Gian

Chủ tịch Ngân hàng Dự trữ Liên bang Dallas, bà Lorie Logan, đã chỉ ra ngày hôm qua rằng có thể sẽ mất một thời gian trước

Jakub Novak 10:53 2025-05-30 UTC+2

ECB Không Nên Trì Hoãn Việc Cắt Giảm Lãi Suất

Trong khi đồng euro đang cố gắng lấy lại mức cao hàng tháng sau một đợt điều chỉnh khá đáng kể diễn ra trong tuần này, một cuộc khảo

Jakub Novak 10:49 2025-05-30 UTC+2
Không thể nói chuyện ngay bây giờ?
Đặt câu hỏi của bạn trong phần trò chuyện.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.