Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.2803 occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 40 pips.

The publication of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting did not trigger any significant market adjustments. Investors had already priced in a pause in the Federal Reserve's future rate decisions. Instead, the pressure on the pound came from Trump's decision to suspend tariffs for 90 days.

Today, further upward correction in the pair can be expected, as there are no key economic releases from the UK. Investors will likely remain cautious ahead of U.S. inflation data, which will influence the Fed's policy stance. However, local factors also matter. It's worth remembering the political instability in the UK, which periodically resurfaces. The lack of UK economic data is more likely to support GBP buyers than pressure them.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy GBP at the entry point near 1.2887 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.2956 (thicker green line). Around 1.2956, I'll exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip pullback. Buying the pound today aligns with the ongoing correction.

Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy GBP if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2838 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward 1.2887 and 1.2956 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell GBP after a breakout below 1.2838 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a sharp drop. The main target for sellers will be 1.2764, where I'll exit the short trade and open a long position for a 20–25 pip reversal. GBP short positions should be entered cautiously and ideally from higher levels.

Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell GBP if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2887 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.2838 and 1.2764 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.