empty
28.02.2025 10:34 AM
The Risk of U.S. Economic Stagflation Resurfaces (Potential Decline in Bitcoin and Rise in #USDX)

Earlier reports indicated that the U.S. president had decided to delay the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico from March 4 to April 2, providing a temporary sense of relief to global financial markets. However, yesterday's news once again sent shockwaves through the markets.

On Thursday, Donald Trump reaffirmed his plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, which will take effect on March 4 without further delay, alongside an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. This announcement caused a sharp reversal in the U.S. dollar, which gained strong support against a basket of major currencies on the Forex market. Meanwhile, gold prices and stock indices accelerated their declines, along with cryptocurrency assets, which suffered further losses.

Are Tariffs the Only Reason for the Market's Downturn?

Unfortunately, no. In addition to the escalation of trade wars, U.S. economic data has also weighed heavily on market sentiment. The latest reports on core durable goods orders and total orders volume were mixed, failing to instill confidence in a stronger economic recovery.

Revised Q4 GDP figures confirmed a slowdown in economic growth from 3.1% to 2.3%, aligning with forecasts. However, the most concerning data came from the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for Q4 2024, which surged from 2.2% to 2.7%, exceeding the 2.5% forecast. The headline PCE also rose from 1.5% to 2.4%, surpassing expectations of 2.3%. While the monthly figure remained flat at 0.0%, compared to a forecasted increase of 0.25% from 0.1%, the overall inflationary trend left a negative impression on investors.

Essentially, these figures suggest that inflation is rising despite an economic slowdown, reinforcing fears of stagflation—a scenario that could be detrimental to the import-dependent U.S. economy.

Key Focus: Upcoming U.S. PCE Inflation Data

Today, market attention will turn to the annual and monthly PCE price index readings from the U.S., which are closely watched indicators of inflation. These figures are typically more relevant than quarterly data due to their freshness and immediate impact on monetary policy expectations.

Consensus forecasts suggest:

  • Annual PCE Inflation is expected to decline to 2.6% from 2.8%.
  • Monthly PCE Inflation is projected to increase from 0.2% to 0.3% in January.

Market Expectations

If the PCE data meets or exceeds expectations, market sentiment will likely remain negative, reinforcing trends in favor of:

  • A stronger U.S. dollar
  • Increased demand for U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over a potential stagflationary downturn in the U.S. economy.

Daily Forecasts

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

The sharp decline in Bitcoin continues amid widespread market negativity. The next downward target is $73,485, with further losses possible if PCE data signals rising U.S. inflation.

U.S. Dollar Index (#USDX)

The Dollar Index is testing key resistance at 107.35. Given overall market sentiment, the upward trend is likely to persist. A break above resistance could push USDX towards 108.40 early next week.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

A libra ignora os dados fracos e tenta persistentemente continuar a subir

Os dados macroeconômicos do Reino Unido publicados na semana passada parecem francamente fracos — tudo está na zona vermelha, o que significa pior do que o esperado. No entanto

Kuvat Raharjo 20:46 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Bitcoin dominado pelo medo

A caridade começa em casa — e a lealdade também. Ao que tudo indica, o comprometimento do 47º presidente dos Estados Unidos com o setor cripto tem menos

Marek Petkovich 18:33 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Libra esterlina: Prévia semanal

O Reino Unido terá pelo menos um relatório digno de atenção nesta semana. Na quarta-feira, será divulgado o dado de inflação de maio. Segundo as expectativas do mercado, a taxa

Chin Zhao 18:33 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD: A guerra não é aliada do dólar

No início da nova semana de negociações, o par EUR/USD manteve-se dentro da faixa de 1,15 e está até tentando se aproximar do nível de resistência de 1,1600, apesar

Irina Manzenko 17:45 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Visão geral do GBP/USD – 16 de junho: Como Trump está prejudicando o dólar

O par de moedas GBP/USD continuará sob a influência da geopolítica e da política na nova semana. Na verdade, temos repetido a mesma coisa todos os dias nos últimos quatro

Paolo Greco 16:24 2025-06-16 UTC+2

O confronto entre Israel e Irã. Reunião do Fed. O que vem a seguir? (Espero uma queda ainda maior do USD/CAD e uma retração local do ouro antes de uma nova onda de crescimento)

Israel e Irã seguem trocando ataques com mísseis, mas os mercados parecem adotar seu próprio roteiro, operando sob a suposição de que o conflito não ultrapassará o limite nuclear. Enquanto

Pati Gani 15:19 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Relatório da CFTC: O dólar está sendo vendido novamente. Aguardando novas revelações de Trump

Há cinco semanas, a posição vendida total do dólar americano em relação às principais moedas parou de aumentar, o que deu motivos para acreditar que o dólar poderia iniciar

Kuvat Raharjo 14:32 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o par EUR/USD tenta recuperar o impulso positivo, aproximando-se do nível psicológico de 1,1600, próximo das faixas de preço vistas pela última vez em 2021. Os traders aguardam

Irina Yanina 14:25 2025-06-16 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o par GBP/USD tenta recuperar o impulso positivo, embora permaneça na defensiva. Os traders preferem adotar uma postura cautelosa, aguardando a divulgação de dados econômicos importantes antes de assumir

Irina Yanina 14:20 2025-06-16 UTC+2

O que prestar atenção em 13 de junho? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Vários relatórios macroeconômicos estão programados para sexta-feira, mas duvidamos que os dados tenham um impacto significativo sobre os traders hoje — especialmente hoje. Como lembrete, Donald Trump pretende aumentar

Paolo Greco 20:46 2025-06-13 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.