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There will be very few macroeconomic events on Wednesday, but yesterday showed us that even a large number of macro reports do not always trigger significant movement—even within the day. Today, the only notable release will be the ADP Employment Report in the U.S., which reflects changes in private-sector employment. In other words, it's essentially a less significant version of the Nonfarm Payrolls report. The market will draw final conclusions based on the NonFarms, not the ADP data.
Among Wednesday's fundamental events, a few speeches from European Central Bank and Federal Reserve officials, including Philip Lane, Isabel Schnabel, and Adriana Kugler, are worth mentioning. However, we'd like to point out that today is April 2, and Donald Trump has yet to make official announcements regarding new tariffs. The market is waiting, as the tariff issue has been practically the only factor driving currency market movements in recent weeks. We believe the market has calmed down somewhat concerning tariffs, and a substantial decline in the dollar is unlikely. However, no one knows precisely what tariffs Trump will announce. If the U.S. president's decision turns out to be unexpected, a strong market reaction cannot be ruled out.
During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade actively but could change direction multiple times throughout the day. There will be a few reports and events today. The market continues to wait for Trump's announcement on new tariffs. Once that information is released, strong movements are possible.
As a reminder, the British pound has been trading flat for weeks, while the euro has entered a phase of total confusion.
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.
Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.
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