Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday. If the market barely reacted to macroeconomic data last week, there is nothing to expect on Monday. Of course, Donald Trump could make a statement at any moment that would alarm traders again, but for obvious reasons, we cannot predict what or when the U.S. president might announce.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is no point in discussing fundamental events other than Trump's trade war. The dollar's decline could continue indefinitely if Trump keeps introducing new tariffs and raising existing ones. Any escalation may lead to a new fall in the dollar. Any de-escalation — to its strengthening. Last week, Trump began softening his rhetoric toward China, but that has not yet been de-escalation. Knowing the U.S. president, we wouldn't be surprised if he raises them again after reports of tariff reductions for China.

Trump stated that he does not intend to maintain tariffs on China at 145%, which triggered a wave of relief across all markets. However, at the same time, China stated that no negotiations with Trump are underway. In the European Union, officials noted that consultations are taking place, but the European Commission does not understand the U.S. president's demands. Thus, we can confidently conclude that there are either no negotiations with the two key U.S. partners or that they are in a very early stage. Therefore, the dollar is in no hurry to strengthen since the news so far does not reflect a real de-escalation of the conflict.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the new week, both currency pairs could move in any direction, but we will most likely observe a flat market. Trend movement can only be triggered by Trump. Otherwise, we can expect low volatility and sideways movement for both currency pairs.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.