Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Tuesday, with only one notable report on the agenda: the U.S. Durable Goods Orders report. This report is significant because durable goods are typically high-value items, making it a partial indicator of the financial health of American consumers. If the figures exceed forecasts, it could trigger a notable strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Additionally, tomorrow's FOMC meeting is also approaching, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, which would be a positive development for the U.S. dollar.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

The primary fundamental event for Tuesday is another speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. However, Lagarde has already given speeches on Wednesday and Friday of last week, as well as on Monday, without providing any groundbreaking updates for the markets. The ECB's first meeting of the year is set for Thursday, and the market fully anticipates a 0.25% rate cut. In contrast, the FOMC meeting, concluding on Wednesday evening, is not expected to include any rate cuts. As a result, the euro remains at a fundamental disadvantage compared to the U.S. dollar. The current upward movement of the euro appears to be merely a technical correction and nothing more.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the new week, price movements are likely to be 80% technically driven. We believe the U.S. dollar could continue its recovery today, as both the euro and the pound have risen too quickly over the past three weeks, especially given that the current movement is corrective. While Donald Trump has undeniably influenced traders' and investors' reluctance to buy the dollar and U.S. stocks, the U.S. currency cannot remain under pressure indefinitely simply because Trump wishes for global alignment with his desires.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.