Analysis of Trades and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The first test of the 152.54 level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly upward from the zero mark, which, in my view, limited the pair's upward potential—especially after such a strong Asian rally. However, the dollar's momentum appears to remain strong. In the second half of the day, I expect speeches from Federal Reserve representatives Thomas Barkin and Michelle Bowman. Only hints of rate cuts that contradict other central bank representatives' opinions could put pressure on the dollar, potentially triggering a small downward correction in the pair. Otherwise, buying along the trend remains the plan. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to focus on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 153.31 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 154.03 (thicker green line on the chart). At 154.03, I will close buy positions and open short positions, targeting a reversal of 30-35 points from this level. The pair's growth today can only be expected after firm statements from Fed representatives. Note: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 153.31 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will reduce the pair's downward momentum and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the target levels of 153.31 and 154.03 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 152.75 level (red line on the chart) is reached, leading to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 152.09 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, targeting a reversal of 20-25 points from this level. Pressure on the pair may increase if the recent break above the daily high persists, especially amid overbought conditions for the dollar. Note: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 153.31 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will cap the pair's upward momentum, leading to a downward market reversal. A decline to the levels of 152.75 and 152.09 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to focus on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to avoid trading before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires having a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.