13.02.2025 12:33 PM
本週，英鎊/日元組合顯示出穩定的回升勢頭，自2024年9月以來的最低水準187.00附近反彈。週四，此組合連續第四天延續積極動能，然而現貨價格仍低於193.00的關鍵心理水準。
樂觀的英國宏觀經濟數據支撐了英鎊的回升。英國國家統計局（ONS）報告，2024年12月止的三個月內，國內生產總值（GDP）環比意外增長0.1%，而上一季度增長為零。第四季度的年度GDP增長達1.4%，超過了預期的1.1%和第三季度的0.9%的增長。
此外，工業生產和製造業產出的數據也超出預期，有助於英鎊的溫和上漲。
日本日元的疲弱是推動英鎊/日元走高的另一個重要因素。投資者依然對唐納·川普總統對原材料進口的新關稅可能帶來的經濟後果保持謹慎，這讓全球市場充滿更多不確定性。同時，股市的樂觀情緒減少了對日元這類避險資產的需求。
然而，日本銀行（BoJ）可能加息的預期，由強勁的生產者物價指數（PPI）數據所強化，可能會限制日元的激進拋售。
儘管如此，英格蘭銀行（BoE）的悲觀前景可能也會限制英鎊/日元進一步上漲的空間。上週，BoE將其2025年的GDP增長預測從1.5%下調至0.75%，行長安德魯·貝利重申今年進一步降息的可能性。
要確認從看空到看多的趨勢反轉，英鎊/日元需要持續的買盤壓力超越193.00。然而，由於日線圖振盪指標尚未進入積極區間，目前進一步的上升潛力仍然有限。
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