empty
23.07.2020 03:42 AM
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 23. There will be no deal, according to British media. Washington is once again aggravating already strained relations with China.

4-hour timeframe

This image is no longer relevant

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 106.9405

Well, the British pound was in absolute panic yesterday. The pound often reacts to various kinds of rumors and expectations, but yesterday it first fell down by 100 points, and then went up by about the same amount. Why is it even difficult to understand what it was? The reaction of traders to any important and significant event? Or is it just a banal, but sharp, technical correction against the upward trend? Recall that no macroeconomic data from overseas was received this week. Thus, traders, in fact, can only react to "coronavirus" data from overseas. Of course, it is impossible not to mention the themes of mass rallies and protests in America, as well as the deep political crisis. In fact, now half of the country has turned against Donald Trump. And along with half of America and half of the world, the coalition is led by China outside the US and Democrats inside the US. All this news, and most importantly, traders' fears for the US economic prospects, have been pushing the pound up for several weeks. However, yesterday the well-known British publication The Daily Telegraph published an article stating that an agreement with the European Union will probably not be concluded. The publication reported that the deadline, which was set by Boris Johnson himself, remains only a few days, and the parties have not managed to move forward in resolving key, controversial issues. The publication also writes that a "basic agreement" with Brussels can still be reached if the Europeans make certain concessions. However, "the UK government already expects that it will conduct trade with the European Union on the terms of the World Trade Organization," according to The Daily Telegraph. However, the British publication did not report anything new. We have been writing for several months that the probability of reaching an agreement between the British and the Europeans does not exceed 5%. Michel Barnier, the head of the EU negotiating team, has said several times that London is in no hurry to negotiate, although it has set a deadline for them until the end of July. Thus, the British are not particularly eager to reach an agreement, and there are at least four disputed issues. So, what are the chances that the parties will be able to reach an understanding in a maximum of one or two months? Therefore, from our point of view, the value of The Daily Telegraph's information can only be in the fact that this information is obtained from government circles. If even the British authorities are not particularly hiding that there will be no deal with the EU, then we really need to prepare for a "hard" Brexit. Presumably on this information, the pound plowed down 100 points. But very quickly came to its senses, as traders remembered that this is the option of ending the Kingdom's stay in the alliance and is expected from the moment when Boris Johnson became Prime Minister.

At the same time, the conflict between the United States and China continues to develop. No, it's not burning. Rather, the picture looks like a smoldering fire, from which at any moment dry grass can burst into flames, if the wind blows harder than usual and in the wrong direction. On July 22, it was announced that the White House had ordered the closure of the Chinese Consulate in Houston, Texas. According to Chinese diplomats, "this is an unheard-of escalation". Beijing also said that it will respond to these actions of the American side. In addition, representatives of China believe that "this is a political provocation and it will definitely worsen relations between the countries." As for explanations, Washington did not provide any official information about why it decided to close the Consulate. However, US State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said that "the Chinese Consulate General in Houston is being closed in order to protect American intellectual property and personal information of the American population". As expected, China immediately rejected any accusations from the American side and rejected suggestions by some media that the Consulate was on fire because its employees burned secret documents. Washington gave Beijing 72 hours to close. What will happen next, you do not need to guess for a long time. Now, most likely, there will be the closure of some American Consulate in China, which will be followed by the same angry speech of the Americans, blaming all the troubles on Beijing. The point is different. It seems that the world's two largest economies are finally on the warpath. In this situation, we can only hope that the next US President will not be Donald Trump, who is used to solving all issues from a position of force, threats and pressure. These methods work with weak opponents, and even then not always. Speaking of China, the whole world saw that the United States itself suffered from the trade standoff, and China also managed to respond to America with a "coronavirus". Joe Biden is not a panacea for resolving the issue with Beijing, but he clearly will not support further deterioration of relations with China.

In the UK, no important macroeconomic reports or events were scheduled for July 22. The same picture awaits traders today, July 23. Accordingly, market participants can only consider news that does not appear in the calendar. This category includes all speeches by Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Michel Barnier, David Frost, central bankers and Finance Ministers of both countries. Any information about the escalation of the conflict with Beijing, the "coronavirus" in the United States and mass riots in American cities will also be interesting.

From a technical point of view, the quotes of the pound/dollar pair continue to be located above the moving average line, and both channels of linear regression continue to be directed upwards. Thus, each new turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward can be used to open new long positions. The fundamental background, as we can see, does not support the US currency at all, and the macroeconomic background is simply absent now. Several more or less important reports will be published on Friday, but, as we can see, traders do not particularly need them in order to conduct active trading of the pair. In this light, we will be more interested in the new COT report on Friday, which will show how the mood of traders has changed over the past days.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 106 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Thursday, July 23, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2625 and 1.2837. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator downward will indicate a new round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2695

S2 – 1.2634

S3 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2756

R2 – 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair also resumed its upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, the flat is canceled, and the market is dominated by buyers. Thus, it is recommended to trade for an increase with the goals of 1.2756, 1.2817 and 1.2837 (the level of volatility )before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Short positions can be considered after fixing the price below the moving average with the goals of 1.2573 and 1.2512.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD 分析與預測

黃金今日跌破3300美元水準。美國個人消費支出(PCE)數據符合預期。

Irina Yanina 17:37 2025-05-30 UTC+2

通脹幾乎已受到控制

儘管歐元對美元的匯率仍然保持堅挺,但歐洲中央銀行(ECB)管理委員會成員 Fabio Panetta 在接受訪問時表示,歐元區的通脹幾乎已經完全受控,但警告進一步的降息需要謹慎考慮決策。 此言論是在有關歐洲央行貨幣政策前景的討論日益增多之際發表的,表明監管機構對未來行動的謹慎態度。

Jakub Novak 13:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

美元/加元。分析與預測

美元/加幣的匯率對今天正在嘗試重新獲得正面動能,不過在美國個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數這一關鍵數據公佈之前,交易者仍持謹慎態度。 作為美聯儲偏好的通脹指標,PCE報告可能會影響到市場對未來降息的預期,這或將提升對美元的需求,並為美元/加幣提供新的支撐。

Irina Yanina 13:22 2025-05-30 UTC+2

歐元/美元。分析與預測

歐元兌美元(EUR/USD)在早前反彈至1.1200水準後,持續掙扎於復甦階段,顯示出中等程度的負面偏向,然而這一跌勢仍然有限。美國經濟回調時期,美元正吸引買家,對歐元兌美元構成阻力。

Irina Yanina 13:19 2025-05-30 UTC+2

特朗普與公司之間的關於關稅的法律糾紛將對市場產生負面影響(比特幣和萊特幣價格可能持續下跌)

全球市場受到美國事件的顯著影響,無論是政治還是經濟領域,都像擺錘一樣持續搖擺不定。 本週早些時候,在美國國際貿易法庭同意受理由多家不滿嚴厲進口關稅的美國公司提出的訴訟後,市場迅速回應,對股票的需求增加,美元也隨之走強。

Pati Gani 11:11 2025-05-30 UTC+2

需要更多時間

達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行行長洛莉·洛根昨日表示,政策制定者可能需要一些時間來理解經濟將如何對關稅及其他政策變動做出反應,因此,他們在調整利率方面也將需要謹慎考量。 這位美聯儲核心領導人的聲明,凸顯了中央銀行面臨的不確定性日益增加。

Jakub Novak 10:53 2025-05-30 UTC+2

歐洲央行不應延遲降息

在本週出現相當大的調整後,歐元正在嘗試重回其月度高點。而多位經濟學家調查顯示,歐洲中央銀行預計會在近期內再度下調利率兩次,這比許多人預期的還要早得多。

Jakub Novak 10:49 2025-05-30 UTC+2

市場需求上訴

S&P 500 指數開盤強勢上漲,但收盤時卻轉為低迷。最初,該指數受到美國國際貿易法院裁定白宮關稅非法的提振,加上 NVIDIA 公佈樂觀的季度財報,開盤時跳空上漲。

Marek Petkovich 10:33 2025-05-30 UTC+2

5月30日需注意什麼?基礎事件初學者指南

將於週五發布多項宏觀經濟報告,但都不被視為特別重要。在德國,將發布5月份的通脹報告,預期指標將放緩至2%。

Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-05-30 UTC+2

英鎊/美元概覽 – 5月30日:正義已經伸張,但能維持多久?

英鎊/美元貨幣對在週四收盤於移動平均線下方,美元連續三天走強。然而,一切在當天下半場發生了變化。

Paolo Greco 03:51 2025-05-30 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.