Gold was unable to make headway on Friday with support sapped by a net improvement in risk appetite and a firm dollar tone. Net losses continued on Monday with spot gold dipping to test the $1,500 per ounce support level.
There is a strong likelihood that the Federal Reserve and ECB will ease monetary policy in September. The ECB is likely to announce a substantial package of interest rate cuts and government bond purchases while the Federal Reserve is likely to announce a further 0.25% rate cut.
Interest rate cuts will have a mixed impact on gold as the potential beneficial impact of lower short-term yields would be offset by a decline in demand for safe haven gold amid hopes for an improvement in risk conditions.
The net impact on global yield curves will deserve attention as a steeper yield curve would be an important indicator of waning fears about the global outlook and gold would be likely to lose favor with investors.
If yield-curve inversion intensifies, however, there will be renewed defensive gold demand.
Central bankers and policymakers will be anxious to provide reassurance and the most likely outcome is an easing of net fears, at least in the short term.
As usual, President Donald Trump remains a crucial wild card. There is a significant risk that he will see the global downturn as increasing Chinese and EU vulnerability. There is also a risk that Trump will look to intensify trade wars in an attempt to force concessions. In this situation there would be a fresh surge in demand for defensive assets including gold.
CFTC data recorded a small decline in non-commercial gold positions, but the total remains close to 35-month highs, maintaining the risk of sharp long liquidation if there is a net improvement in global risk appetite. Longer-term gold fundamentals remain attractive and there is still a strong case for buying on dips.
美元/加元貨幣對在自2024年10月以來的最低水平附近持續橫向整理。市場參與者正在等待加拿大央行的利率決定,該決定將在北美交易時段宣佈。
週三安排的宏觀經濟報告不多。當然,我們應該注意德國、英國、歐盟及美國的服務業商業活動指數。
在整個星期二,歐元/美元貨幣對的交易相對平穩,美金甚至略有增長。然而,我們不會過多關注美元上升幾十個點子的情況。
Donald Trump 正在危及自己的經濟。這是G-20國家在最近一次峰會上得出的結論。
麻煩從意想不到的地方來襲。由於聯盟夥伴拒絕支持其移民控制計劃,自由黨解散了荷蘭政府。
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