Gold was unable to make headway on Friday with support sapped by a net improvement in risk appetite and a firm dollar tone. Net losses continued on Monday with spot gold dipping to test the $1,500 per ounce support level.
There is a strong likelihood that the Federal Reserve and ECB will ease monetary policy in September. The ECB is likely to announce a substantial package of interest rate cuts and government bond purchases while the Federal Reserve is likely to announce a further 0.25% rate cut.
Interest rate cuts will have a mixed impact on gold as the potential beneficial impact of lower short-term yields would be offset by a decline in demand for safe haven gold amid hopes for an improvement in risk conditions.
The net impact on global yield curves will deserve attention as a steeper yield curve would be an important indicator of waning fears about the global outlook and gold would be likely to lose favor with investors.
If yield-curve inversion intensifies, however, there will be renewed defensive gold demand.
Central bankers and policymakers will be anxious to provide reassurance and the most likely outcome is an easing of net fears, at least in the short term.
As usual, President Donald Trump remains a crucial wild card. There is a significant risk that he will see the global downturn as increasing Chinese and EU vulnerability. There is also a risk that Trump will look to intensify trade wars in an attempt to force concessions. In this situation there would be a fresh surge in demand for defensive assets including gold.
CFTC data recorded a small decline in non-commercial gold positions, but the total remains close to 35-month highs, maintaining the risk of sharp long liquidation if there is a net improvement in global risk appetite. Longer-term gold fundamentals remain attractive and there is still a strong case for buying on dips.
任何事情都有其極限,這當然也包括唐納·川普的談判策略。他持續使用威脅政策隨後再進行延期的時間越久,市場就越不會認真對待他的行動。
在法國發布通脹數據和德國GfK報告後,歐元下跌。 三年前,歐元區數據顯示通脹已升至8.1%。
日元在日內交易中持續走弱。對日元施加壓力的主要因素之一是日本考慮減少發行超長期債券的決定,這導致30年期國債收益率降至自5月8日以來的最低水準。
昨日,歐洲貨幣對歐洲央行行長克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的演講反應不大。拉加德表示,唐納德·特朗普總統的不確定政策為歐元增強其國際角色提供了一個絕佳機會。
週一,英鎊/美元貨幣對持續上漲。值得指出的是,歐元的情況相當複雜且不穩定。
週一,歐元/美元貨幣對在市場開盤後再次展開上行運動。上週美元的下跌再次是由相同因素造成的——川普的關稅。
Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.
If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.
Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?
Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.
We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.